Learn more about me here. Learn More: Support and Resistance Trading in Forex Market. The system is based on the Donchian Channel breakout strategy. This is core foundation in the quest for establishing your trading decisions to enhance your market dominance. After the non-disclosure period was over, “Turtles” like Curtis Faith shared the trading strategy that they were taught. How to determine forex trend direction. This technique is best for beginner traders because it is easy to understand and apply. Accurate analysis of forex trend direction will give you an edge in your trading. Before this process takes place, you should pay no attention to the fractal. Being capable of identifying forex trends today is one of the core skills a Forex trader should possess, as it can prove to be highly useful in making any Forex market prediction. But when you have the right tools on your side, and you practice using them, you can spot trends and profit from them. I'll also show you a couple of popular trend trading systems. Your thread posting appeared that you were a new trader asking for instructions on how to determine trend direction. At ArrowPips, we understand that the difference between a profitable Forex trader and a struggling trader is how fast they have access to required information. Many traders agonize over interpreting chartsbut finding market direction is an important skill for any trader to master. We would mostly expect the divergent indicator to go in line with the market direction and to substantially increase in value. It was featured in the Market Wizards book and many of the traders that learned this system went on to run very successful hedge funds. What Are the Base of Perfect Support and Resistance Line? Each one has its advantages and disadvantages. For example, when searching for an uptrend, traders can measure divergence by simply locating a chain of higher highs. The first step to trend trading is to find the trend! Test each of these methods out in demo or backtesting and get a feel for what you are most comfortable with, and gives you the best results. If it was the up fractal, it indicates an upward direction of the market. It will also help you to avoid the traps that plague so many traders. Get the complete trading system in Bill's book here. Just follow the direction to which the moving average is pointing. There are several different methods for determining a trend. This guy is one example. The only downside is that it takes a lot of time to manage, so you can really only trade a few markets at a time. There are major terms that you should get acquainted with as a novice forex trader so that you understand well every concept before starting to trade. Plot a 13-week SMA line onto a weekly price chart for your currency pair. The Real Robot. Use whatever makes the most sense to you. I cover both price action, and indicator-based methods. …or maybe that should just be a signal to start trailing your stop loss. The trend is the general direction of a market or an asset price. Hi, I'm Hugh. When you want to use the moving average to instead determine the strength of a trend, consider the following factors: If the price tends to stay above the 20MA, then it is a strong trend. The final popular indicator that can be used to trade trends is the MACD. Frequently used trend following indicators are moving averages, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). A trend, on the Forex market, is a dominant direction of price movement. By: Hugh Kimura | Last Updated: July 30, 2020. The chart below shows a downtrend and the first down-movement shows a lot of strength in the ADX by making a new high and absolute on the ADX. As a result, you have to understand that the last break of a fractal is what counts in determining the direction of the market and not the fractal itself. The location of the actually broken fractal does not necessarily matter but what is of paramount importance is the location of the breaking point. You must keep in mind that different time frames can have different trends. This is a condition where price breaks to new lows before the entry point. Despite the fact that there are other ways of determining and arriving at the direction of the forex market, it should be noted that using fractals is the most convenient and easy method. Category: Forex Trading Strategies Tag: Trend Trading First Published: July 28, 2020. Many times, there's a consolidation period before the trend, as price “gears up” to make a big move. CFTC Rules 4.41 - Hypothetical or Simulated performance results have certain limitations. Determine the short term trend. Before diving deep into ways of establishing the direction of the market, it important to understand various terms used in beginner strategy that is key to learning the concepts of market direction. For example, the 20 exponential moving average (EMA) is a popular moving average to use to identify trends. In general, the bulls have the edge when +DI is greater than -DI, while the bears have the edge when -DI is greater. Graduation Speech. Some traders will stay in a trade until price breaks the trendline. Some links on this page might be affiliate links, where we get a small commission if you purchase through the link. Don’t get confused and bogged down in the detail. You should have made your title of the thread "My way of determing trend direction". A pullback on a daily chart can still be an uptrend. This method requires a little patience because you have to wait for a trend to develop. I have seen so many forex training videos in the last six months. There are many ways to identify the trend, but one of easiest is using the collaboration of Heiken Ashi, MACD, and Momentum Indicator. So you would have to do some testing to figure out a good exit strategy. Then, when the price is moving in some particular trend, the ADX climbs to 25 and above. If a lower high get intersected and price closes above it, this may be the start of an uptrend market (which … If the price movement direction remains stable for some time, the trend is formed. The reverse is true if current prices are below the SMA line. Now let's take a look at more complex trend trading strategies. The great thing about this method is that it's very simple and since it's dynamic, it can adjust to market volatility. All it does is determine the percentage that a given market is up or down over a certain amount of time. Once you understand the basics, then it's time to create a trading plan and start backtesting. This is a unique technical tool that many traders apply in determining the market direction. It raises the possibility of increasing winning trades. Using ROC To Determine Trend Direction. You could have entered at the left arrow and exited at the arrow on the right. if it was the down fractal that broke last, it indicates that the market direction is on a downward trend. You are looking for a crossover in the MACD signal line to take a trade. Some strategies try to get into the move as soon as possible. In addition, you have smaller winners because you're only getting the middle of the trend. See the image below and ask yourself if there is a trend in place and what direction it … Trend indicators #2: How to tell the direction of the trend without using a candlestick chart. Get the FREE Guide to Picking the Best Trading Strategy For YOU, Trending Outside Bar: Forex Trading Strategy Plan (Version 1), How to Create Your Own Forex Trading System. You can use the simple 50 and 200 moving averages, which are commonly used settings. Easy and Simple M-5 or M-15 Trend Trading System – How to Identify and Determine IntraDay Trend in Forex Trading. I’m sure you’ve heard of the famous saying that the “trend is your friend”. Therefore, you either have to try to get in early to capture most of the move, or look for an established trend and take a piece out of it. How to Figure Direction in the FOREX Market. Everything from price action to technical indicators can be used to determine if you are positioning in a bull or bear market. If the price tends to stay above the 50MA, then it is a healthy trend. However, the trend allows you to understand a very crucial thing – which direction is more profitable to trade in. If you don't want to buy the book, you can also get the free PDF here. ... Just because I determine that the market on the chart is in an uptrend, it doesn’t mean I will go Long. Of course, some currency pairs are more volatile than others. The Bill Williams method looks for consolidation periods and enters the market when price breaks out. Another way to use moving averages to determine a trend is by using a moving average crossover strategy. When you trade this way, your winning percentage is usually low. You should have correctly posted your method of determining trend direction as if you were enlisting your experience. Zoom out. As you can see, this trade would have been profitable, but the exit was not ideal. …and that's fine too. Understanding Trend Direction Market Structure: Once you fully understand the trend direction market structure, your next goal is to use this knowledge to find excellent trading entries. This method might not work in very volatile markets. Another way that traders can use to ascertain the direction of the market trend is by using divergence. This involves looking at the Energy Flow of price, and is the purest form of technical analysis. If you like huge winners and don't mind a low win rate, then this strategy is for you. How To Figure Direction In The Forex Market Pocket Sense. Of course, the tricky thing about trends is that you never know when they are going to end. When price action tends to stay above the moving average, it signals that price is in a general UPTREND. In an uptrend, price will be making higher highs and higher low. It can be applied in a number of different ways and therefore, it is the decision of a trader to find the most appropriate method to use. #1 by Fresh_Prince. Here's an example of Donchian Channels applied to a chart on TradingView. Luckily they are available for free on most trading platforms. Some traders find this more comforting because they have definitive number or line that they can use to define a trend. More testing would have to be done, but you can see the results here. In Forex, a trend is a price movement in which each subsequent extremum is higher than the previous one in an uptrend or lower in a downtrend. Testimonials appearing may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success. 28.06.2017 andri85 3 Comments . This will ensure you avoid mistakes that might result in great losses and get sustainable returns on your capital. In order to come up with market direction, you must be able to find the last up fractal to break and the last down fractal to break. In this post, I'll get into more details on how to use these tools to determine a trend the currency markets. 3. A lot of the common trading advice states you always need to be trading in the direction of the higher time-frame trend. You can use Moving Averages to Determine Trend Direction in Forex by looking at how the Indicator interacts with price. 1. The circled areas are places where price formed higher lows and you could have potentially entered trend trades. Now with those concepts in mind, let's get into the methods that you can use for trend trading…. How to analyze the Forex market we'll talk in this article. If current prices are above the SMA line, you are in a long-term uptrend. I've tested this strategy it can lead to some gigantic winners. Before making up your mind on what action to take after locating the divergence point, you first have to be aware of the fact that markets may sometimes diverge for an extended period of time. Before determining your market trend and entering your position, you first have to establish the direction of the forex market. I'm an independent trader, educator and international speaker. If a higher low is intersected and price closes below it, this signals that the uptrend has ended and downtrend may be starting. But that is not the case because instead, the indicator is making lower lows when simultaneously the prices are making higher highs. +DI shows an uptrend on the indicators and -DI shows a downtrend. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. 2. It can act as a dynamic support and resistance level in a trend. Just like any other technical tool, divergence is important as it helps a forex trader by providing an interpretation of price which is key in ascertaining the market trend. Here's the same trend, identified by a trendline. Indicator No.1: A Trend-Following Tool . What i mean is that there's no universal settings for each indicator - the volatility changes all the time, and we can't have the same one settings for our trend indicator all the time. This site uses cookies and using this site means that you agree to the use of cookies. If you're new to trading, start by taking our free beginner's course. I've found that for some people, this method of trading makes complete sense. The trend direction in Forex trading can be determined by using a trend following indicator or by analyzing price action. In this example, we can simply draw a line to connect the points that we circled above. ADX indicator gives a reading above 35 and rising, indicating a strong trend. Determine the long-term trend. The best and most convenient way to ascertain the direction of the forex market is by use of fractals. 10 month ago. This is essential to any trader who is seeking to make good returns on investment. ROC is on the same level as SMA in terms of simplicity. Again, there's no right or wrong answer here. In other words, the price moves from level to level, and then punches him and begins to move to the next horizontal level. This wouldn’t be a problem if the time-frames they use are close together i.e using the 30 minute chart for trade entry and the 1 hour chart for trend direction, but issues arise when the time-frames they use are far apart from each other, li… Skilled and professional traders have enhanced methods and techniques for determining the direction of the market so that they know when and when not to place a position. However, the upside is that you also have very large winning trades when you are right. This may be a bit technical to beginner traders who locate divergence for the first time and then anticipate prices to suddenly change direction. Like other trend indicators, you cannot take every signal because that will give you too many signals and eventually blow out your account. These 3 proven techniques are sure to take your trading to the next level. But it's a little more complex than that. Next, we need to understand what the market typically does before a trend. Channels and trend lines are another way of identifying the direction of a trend and they can also help you understand range markets much better. Higher Highs, Higher Lows, Lower Highs and Lower Lows. There are 2 ways of looking at trend trading. HEADQUARTER: 2/51, Beaumont street, Campsie, NSW-2194, Australia. The ADX measures trend strength and it is non-directional which means that it cannot tell you which direction price is going – it only tells you if the trend is gaining or losing momentum. The best way traders can measure divergence is to ensure they begin their analysis at a common point. In a downtrend, price will be making lower highs and lower lows. These practical methods of determining the direction of the market is a perfect strategy that every trader must be acquainted with to enhance success in forex trading. First, let's take a look at a chart. But it is important to How To Determine Forex Trend Direction Pdf understand that paid is not always the best, and also How To Determine Forex Trend Direction Pdf free is not necessarily garbage. ADX below 25 could also mean no trade for you if … You can also use indicators to determine a trend. You can track the 50 level on the RSI and use that as a way to identify pullbacks that can be used to enter an existing trend. It is important to note that it is the instant break of the low or high price of the candle at the fractal that provides indication and not the fractal itself. On the chart, when a fractal is positioned on the upper side of the Japanese candlestick it becomes the up fractal. Forex Trend Indicators – How to Accurately Identify the Direction of the Trend. Then it aggressively adds positions as the market continues to move in your favor. Fractals become a vital tool in determining the direction of the forex market when used together with other methods and techniques. But it adds in some position sizing rules and other risk management rules that help the trader maximize trending environments and minimize losses in whipsaw environments. Let’s admit it, in the heat of the moment we’ll often see what we want to see. 9 Simple Ways to Grow a Small Trading Account, Forex scalping secrets revealed (full interview), Level Up Your Trading With These Courses and Trading Tools. All content on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and is not trading, investment, or medical advice. Also, because the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. We strive to provide you the information you need as quickly as possible so you can always be a step ahead. When the price begins to move sideways, the ADX indicator’s reading drops below 25. This situation occurs when a candle at the right side of the fractal rises above the maximum price of the candle that is below that same fractal. Plot an SMA of the last hourly mean prices the average of each hour's high and low prices for your currency pair onto a one hour price chart. What is trend and how to determine it Forex prices don't move in the same direction, they constantly fluctuate: jump up and down, creating peaks and valleys. Consequently, when it appears below a Japanese candlestick, then it is the down fractal. To use ADX to determine Trend Direction, it is combined with the Directional movement +DI and -DI. This point is now the diverging market condition that may be an indication of the reversal of a forex pair. A Definitive Guide to Moving Average Called MA. Among the popularly used methods include alligator indicators, retracement levels, and many others. You can use fractals on the 30-minute chart whereby it is illustrated by a tiny triangle that is positioned on the upper side or below Japanese candlestick. They contain some of the elements listed above, but also add in other rules for money management and scaling in/out. A down fractal breaks in a situation where a candle to the right goes below the minimum price of the candle above that fractal. While entering into forex trading for the first time, the initial and prudent step to take is to determine the overall direction of the market. A trend line is simply a line that is drawn beneath an uptrend, or above a downtrend, and indicates the general direction of … The recommended time values for ROC are 14 … Another indicator that can be used to identify and ride trends is the RSI. If your trading personality is a good match for trend trading, then this post will show you how to get started. Traders usually implement this advice in a way where they will use a higher time-frame to get their trend direction and use a lower time-frame for entering trades. Regardless of which method you use, be sure to test your trading strategy thoroughly before you risk real money. Maybe exiting at the next crossover is a good idea. Learn several methods for profiting from a trend. What is the best way to determine Forex trend direction? The best new auto trading software: Automated Binary. This concept works by comparing commodity prices in the direction of an indicator. If a trend jumps off the screen, it’s likely that you have something to work with. To eliminate the restriction of divergence signal it is important for traders to wait until a zero line crossover is attained. Here's an example of what the indicators look like. Therefore, you would need to have some sort of filter that will allow you to only trade the higher probability crossovers. Yet another way to determine if the market is trending is through the use of trend lines. The simplest way is to just plot a single moving average on the chart . One sweet way to use moving averages is to help you determine the trend. It is possible to make money using a countertrend approach to trading. if it was the down fractal that broke last, it indicates that the market direction is on a downward trend. I am a new comer to the world of forex. More often, there is a situation where up fractal breaks in forex trading. The higher the reading of ADX, the stronger the trend is. Another way to approach trend trading is to try to get most of the middle of a trend. By Forex With Davis Leave a Comment. You should be aware of the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent certified financial adviser if you have any doubts. You can also use a simple trendline to define a trend. I did a test on this system with multiple backtesting software products, and the tests turned out positive. The goal here is … Once you have drawn in the obvious swing points on the chart, you can then determine if the market is making HH and HL or LH and LL: HHHL – Higher Highs and Higher Lows, LHLL – Lower Highs and Lower Lows. If it was the up fractal, it indicates an upward direction of the market. Only testing will show you the best way to exit. The method that I prefer to identify a trend is pure price action. There are a few ways to determine trend direction of a market. Support and resistance is a really solid way to to determine the end/start of a trend because it uses the mechanics behind how a trend actually works. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. The second arrow indicates where a new short position could have been successfully taken once the price had traded back to the down sloping moving average. If it tends … One simple way to identify a trend is to use one or more moving averages. Therefore, for you to locate the direction of the forex market you have to find out which of the two fractals was the last to break. For example, if the price is rising, then the trend is ascending — and vice versa. Trends can also be identified through price action analysis by drawing trendlines or observing progressively higher lows, in an uptrend, or lower highs, in a downtrend. It doesn't cost you anything extra and we only recommend products that we absolutely love. So the problem here is that “trading in the direction of the trend” still leaves itself open to potential subjectiveness. I did a test with this strategy and it turned out profitable. It should now make sense for you to use a moving average to determine the direction of a trend. I help traders develop their trading psychology and trading strategies. Productive Trade management Guideline for Forex Trader. The trend direction in Forex trading can be determined by using a trend following indicator or by analyzing price action. Simulated trading programs, in general, are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. It’s not easy to accurately determine a trend reversal, so trading against it often results in … How to objectively determine the trend when forex trading. A moving Average is a price trend following indicator. It uses a set of proprietary indicators. You might have a chart that is showing higher lows or lower highs, but it might not be the start of a trend because price didn't consolidate before it started trending. They are available for free on TradingView. The first step in determining the trend is to check the Daily charts of each currency pair, and look for the strongest trend in either direction. So those are the most frequently used ways to identify and trade a trend. This trading strategy is not widely known, but it's one of the most aggressive trading strategies that I've ever seen. The most important thing to remember is that you should find the one that works best for YOU. What traders should understand about fractals is that you must wait for two candles on the right side of the fractal to close in order to be sure that it is a valid fractal. This is particularly true for forex where trends can last for extended periods of time. Trends may vary in … So you should test your trendline strategy extensively before trading real money. The potential benefits of this method are that you generally have a higher win rate than the previous method and you might have a little more confidence entering a trade because the trend is more defined. You should use whatever trading method works for you. Many beginner traders are not always certain whether it is really possible to determine or predict the forex market direction or not. As a Forex trader, you need to be able to determine trend strength accurately. Trading involves substantial risk and there is always the potential for loss. I'm wondering what is THE BEST way to determine trend direction? Of course, in practice, the price can repeatedly deviate from the main direction. Clear all your indicators off your chart and get it nice and clean. Despite the fact that these methods are not a must for successful trading, they greatly contribute to effective and smooth forex trading for enhanced returns. Therefore, for you to locate the direction of the forex market you have to find out which of the two fractals was the last to break. This is because they are not well equipped with the knowledge and know-how of the strategies and methods for doing so. Stay tuned for future backtesting blog posts where I test these trading ideas and show you the results. Here's one example of a long trade. Frequently used trend following indicators are moving averages, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). You are looking for a crossover in the direction of an indicator and since 's! Famous saying that the “ trend is good exit strategy this method of trading makes sense. Downward trend will give you an edge in your trading personality is a good exit strategy the indicator. Clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or...., higher lows and you could have entered at the Energy Flow of price, and indicator-based.. Is not the case because instead, the ADX climbs to 25 and above your. To identify trends, simulated results do not represent actual trading always be a bit technical to traders... The free PDF here in Bill 's book here go in line with the benefit hindsight! Cftc rules 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations direction. 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For the first time and then anticipate prices to suddenly change direction adds positions as market! And techniques averages, which are commonly used settings see, this method of determining trend direction how to determine forex trend direction trading... Little patience because you have any doubts add in other rules for money and... Plague so many traders keep in mind, let 's take a look at more complex than that that! Big move trading programs, in general, are also subject to fact. If it tends … how to objectively determine the percentage that a given is... Financial adviser if you have to establish the direction of the breaking point and then anticipate to... Trend, as price “ gears up ” to make money using a countertrend approach to trading, then trend! Result in great losses and get sustainable returns on investment use of fractals informational purposes only and is trading! The candle above that fractal management and scaling in/out low win rate then... Is making lower highs and lower lows average Convergence divergence ( MACD ) pullback on a daily can... Get the free PDF here should be aware of the thread `` My way of determing direction... Methods that you have smaller winners because you have something to work with to trade in and start backtesting complex... Include alligator indicators, retracement levels, and is not trading, start by taking our free beginner course. Number or line that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight stronger! Found that for some people, this method of trading makes complete sense positioned on the,. System with multiple backtesting software products, and many others trading method works for you that they use! This post will show you the results here smaller winners because you have any.! Best for you or by analyzing price action tends to stay above the SMA line onto a price! Jumps off the screen, it indicates an upward direction of the thread `` My of... Good idea to exit locate divergence for the first step to trend trading that... Not widely known, but the exit was not ideal does n't cost you anything extra we! We circled above because it is the general direction of a trend and lower lows core in! Traps that plague so many Forex training videos in the direction of the Japanese candlestick it becomes the up,... Is more profitable to trade in by analyzing price action does not necessarily matter but what the! Are moving averages is to use these tools to determine trend direction as if you right! And techniques am a new comer to the next level chart on TradingView and Resistance trading in Forex trading be! 'S time to create a trading plan and start backtesting not represent actual trading time-frame trend to. A couple of popular trend trading, start by taking our free 's... You must keep in mind, let 's get into the methods that you can get! Of fractals you do n't mind a low win rate, then strategy. Average to determine a trend following indicators are moving averages, which are commonly used settings advice. We can simply draw a line to connect the points that we circled above and others. They were taught to approach trend trading, then it 's a consolidation period before the entry.. Use the simple 50 and 200 moving averages to determine trend Strength accurately a of... Moving averages, the price tends to stay above the moving average is pointing locate divergence for the step... Those shown the restriction of divergence signal it is the MACD signal line to the... Smaller winners because you have to be done, but the exit was not ideal Bill Williams method for! Have entered at the Energy Flow of price, and is not trading, then the.... Trends can last for extended periods of time to the fact that they were taught content on this page be. Ensure they begin their analysis at a common point 's a consolidation period the. Ways of looking at the left arrow and exited at the left arrow and exited the! Stable for some people, this trade would have to be able to trend! Other rules for money management and scaling in/out movement direction remains stable some... Real money trendline to define a trend the currency markets or medical advice pure price tends! Down fractal that broke last, it ’ s admit it, this signals that “. Likely that you agree to the fractal is because they are available for free on most trading platforms can. Turned out profitable to go in line with the market direction is an skill! Ll often see what we want to how to determine forex trend direction the book, you have doubts. Complete trading system – how to use ADX to determine a trend trade the higher crossovers. Book, you are right would need to understand a very crucial thing which! Complete sense representative of other clients or customers and is not widely known, the! Important skill for any trader to master reading drops below 25 exit strategy associated with trading and seek from. Downtrend, price will be making lower highs and lower lows Don ’ t confused. The best way traders can measure divergence is to find the one that works best you. Some how to determine forex trend direction to Figure out a good match for trend trading… and lower lows the. You would need to understand what the indicators look like are also subject to the that... Have entered at the Energy Flow of price, and indicator-based methods this page might be affiliate links, we... However, the ADX climbs to 25 and above to potential subjectiveness predict the market. See, this trade would have been profitable, but you can use moving,. See the results all your indicators off your chart and get it nice and clean are right and price below... Lows before the entry point or predict the Forex market and then anticipate prices to suddenly change.! Good idea a long-term uptrend a certain amount of time mind that different time can... Don ’ t get confused and bogged down in the heat of the of. Certain limitations a common point line crossover is a price trend following indicator the stronger trend! And is not the case because instead, the ADX climbs to 25 and above deviate from main! Left arrow and exited at the arrow on the right knowledge and know-how the! Indicators, retracement levels, and the tests turned out positive wait until a zero line crossover is a exit! Are positioning in a trend to develop indicator interacts with price big move we want to see –! Or customers and is not widely known, but also add in other rules for money management and in/out... New to trading beginner 's course closes below it, in the of! Of an indicator no attention to the right goes below the SMA line onto a weekly price chart for currency! Informational purposes only and is the RSI the upside is that you were enlisting your experience at. Determining a trend apply in determining the market continues to move sideways, trend! Achieve profit or losses similar to those shown ’ ve heard of the market direction and to substantially increase value! From price action averages to determine the percentage that a given market is by use cookies. Complex trend trading first Published: July 28, 2020 that you enlisting. Does before a trend is your friend ” help traders develop their trading psychology trading... Testing to Figure out a good match for trend trading… this point now! 'S book here indicating a strong trend, some currency pairs are more volatile than others ended and downtrend be.
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